Search results for " forecast"

2019

Abstract. This study uses the synergy of multi-resolution soil moisture (SM) satellite estimates from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, a dense network of ground-based SM measurements, and a soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model, SURFEX (externalized surface), module ISBA (interactions between soil, biosphere and atmosphere), to examine the benefits of the SMOS level 4 (SMOS-L4) version 3.0, or “all weather” high-resolution soil moisture disaggregated product (SMOS-L43.0; ∼1 km). The added value compared to SMOS level 3 (SMOS-L3; ∼25 km) and SMOS level 2 (SMOS-L2; ∼15 km) is investigated. In situ SM observations over the Valencia anchor station (VAS; SMOS calibrati…

Statistical retrieval of atmospheric profiles with deep convolutional neural networks

2019

Abstract Infrared atmospheric sounders, such as IASI, provide an unprecedented source of information for atmosphere monitoring and weather forecasting. Sensors provide rich spectral information that allows retrieval of temperature and moisture profiles. From a statistical point of view, the challenge is immense: on the one hand, “underdetermination” is common place as regression needs to work on high dimensional input and output spaces; on the other hand, redundancy is present in all dimensions (spatial, spectral and temporal). On top of this, several noise sources are encountered in the data. In this paper, we present for the first time the use of convolutional neural networks for the retr…

The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2: production and evaluation

2020

This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulati…

The making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 1: Model sensitivity

2020

This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They…

A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems

2021

Abstract. In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies on-line potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in…

Global-Scale Evaluation of Roughness Effects on C-Band AMSR-E Observations

2015

Quantifying roughness effects on ground surface emissivity is an important step in obtaining high-quality soil moisture products from large-scale passive microwave sensors. In this study, we used a semi-empirical method to evaluate roughness effects (parameterized here by the parameter) on a global scale from AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) observations. AMSR-E brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz obtained from January 2009 to September 2011, together with estimations of soil moisture from the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L3 products and of soil temperature from ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) were used as inputs in a retrieval…

Forecasting the volatility of biofuel feedstock prices: the US evidence

2019

Given that, nowadays, 40% of the US corn crop is used for biofuel production, there is a growing concern that the rise in biofuel production might lead to an increase in food prices. However, it is also obvious that significant growth in biofuel use has minimized the demand for fossil fuel and has hence reduced the volume of carbon emissions. It is therefore crucial to model corn market volatility precisely because such an estimate could play a vital role in stabilizing food and biofuel market prices. For this purpose, we consider using the information content of the corn implied volatility (CIV) index to predict the corn futures market return volatility. Using symmetric and asymmetric GARC…

Predicting olive flowering phenology with phenoclimatic models

2018

In plants, day length and temperature are the major climatic factors that affect the transition from a phenological phase to the next one. Non-linear models, such as growing degree hours (GDH), have been successfully used to calculate thermal time required for spring bud burst in deciduous fruit trees. In this experiment, temperature records and blooming dates of olive trees in different years and for 10 different sites in the Italian territory were recorded. Olive booming time was correlated to the amount of (GDH) accumulated from the date of bud rest onset, calculated as the day when the maximum negative chilling units accumulation was reached (UTAH Model), to full bloom. The GDH model wa…

Modelling the effects of more selective trawl nets on the productivity of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) and deep-water rose shrimp (Parapenae…

2018

Single-species Gadget models were used to assess the effects of using a sorting grid mounted on the traditional trawl net used by Sicilian trawlers to exploit the deep-water rose shrimp in the Strait of Sicily. The main commercial by-catch species of this fleet is the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), often caught at sizes well below the minimum conservation reference size. Selectivity curves based on the results of an experimental survey carried out in the area using a commercial trawler equipped with an ad hoc-designed sorting grid were incorporated into single-species Gadget models to forecast the effects of changing fishery selectivity on the performance of the two stocks in terms …

Uncovering the knowledge flows and intellectual structures of research in Technological Forecasting and Social Change: A journey through history

2020

Abstract Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) celebrates its fiftieth anniversary this year. The anniversary represents an appropriate time for an introspective analysis of the journal's history and impact. This study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC in terms of how often TF&SC is cited by other journals (citation outflow), how often other journals are cited by TF&SC (citation inflow), citations by Web of Science and SCImago disciplinary categories, most-cited articles in TF&SC, co-citation of journals, and co-occurrence of author keywords. Analysis is conducted by using the Web of Science (WOS) database and Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software. The in…